(I don’t think that anything I said below can be construed as medical advice. If it can, don’t construe it that way, I am not a doctor.
An outbreak of swine flu in Mexico and beyond has put everyone into pandemic concern mode. Mexican officials may have gone into reputation control before infection control mode if some critics are accurate and America’s Center for Disease Control seems to have curled up in the fetal position as far as containment goes. Doesn’t that make them more of a Center for Disease Fretting? C’est la vie.
There are 68 dead from a flu with 20 of them confirmed to be the culprit virus. Over a thousand people in Mexico have a flue like illness and while they may not all be this virus, I have heard that the flu season is thought to be extending longer than normal which might be suspicious. Unlike current forms of Avian flu (H5N1), this swine flu (H1N1) seems to be quite pleased to pass from human to human. The letter/number designation to the strains refer to receptors on the virus which let it gain entry to cells in the respiratory tract. If the virus can affect the cells higher in the airway they can be more easily transmitted but if they can enter cells further down they can be more dangerous. Avian flu is currently good at infecting the deeper respiratory cells but not so good at spreading person to person. That’s just some useless info. As I said I am not a doctor so if I got anything wrong there, let me know and I’ll change it.
The 1918 flu was also a variant of the H1N1 strain. That doesn’t mean that we can draw any conclusions about this flu yet but doesn’t it make you feel somewhat opposite of warm and cozy? Another similarity is that, like the 1918 virus, this is hitting young and healthy adults harder than kids and elderly; a reverse of the normal pattern It has been suggested that what makes certain flu viruses and viruses like SARS is that the patients’ own immune system overreacts, leading to dehydration, and other complications. Hydration therapy was not as advanced in 1918 so we have that going for us. This theory could explain why these viruses hit healthy adults worse; kids and elderly don’t have the same strength in their immune system so an over reaction is less likely.
Now it is never too early for a little speculation:
“The new Mexican Swine Flu has elements of DNA from the following: avian flu, human flu Type A, human flu Type B, Asian swine flu, and European swine flu. A strange combination never seen before and having less than 1/10% chance of being a natural event. Human and animal viruses, from four or more continents, suddenly recombine in a new flu during a non-flu season that spreads from human-to-human with a 10% fatality rating? The improbability gives one pause.”
While I am not discounting the bio-terror possibility completely, I don’t know over what time frame that 1/10% is because rare events can happen often over a long time period. And with transportation links being what they are these days there could be a lot more opportunity for viral contact. Not all of these genes had to be included in this strain at once. It could have quietly frittered away between chickens, wild birds and domestic pigs for some time, picking up genes here and there before picking up the final one that gave it a high infection rate between humans. And there are some conditions in Mexico, like a dense population of people and livestock with suboptimal health care that lend themselves to this event. Still, I would like to hear what virologists and epidemiologists have to say about the possibility.
With a little luck, this will not turn out to be the next big pandemic. Interestingly, if it is, we in the West have a lot more tools to protect ourselves like hydration therapy, immunosuppressors (if that theory turns out to be true) and even if we don’t have enough of the two flu drugs we know work against it, Tamiflu and Relenza, we likely do have enough to keep our health care institutions running which was a major problem in the 1918 pandemic. The nations where the terrorists are funded from and work out of are probably less prepared for a pandemic. If jihadis are behind this they may have provided their own people with far more misery and death than the provide us with. But then they do tend to do that.